Mr. Takao Toshikawa's Luncheon Talk at FCCJ:
"Abe's Successor and the Future of the LDP"

Takahiro MIYAO (Professor and Head, Japanese Institute of Global Communications, IUJ)

On Friday, September 14, there was a luncheon talk by Mr. Takao Toshikawa (Tokyo Insideline Editor in Chief & Oriental Economist Tokyo Bureau Chief) at FCCJ on the implications of Mr. Shinzo Abe's announcement that he will resign as prime minister. The following is a summary of his talk.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a rather abrupt announcement that he will quit for the following two reasons. First, his physical as well as mental health was deteriorating rapidly, as his fatigue was so extreme that he simply could not continue. Second, he promised more than he should to US President Bush regarding the continuation of Japan's refueling service in the Indian Ocean, and later found out that he could not keep his promise by facing the political reality back home.

Mr. Taro Aso had been a frontrunner to succeed premiership from Mr. Abe, until Mr. Aso was criticized by many of his fellow party members that he was first told by Prime Minister Abe about his health problem and his intension to resign, but kept it secret to his advantage. Now Mr. Fukuda appears to be a frontrunner, but his support base is fragile, because heterogeneous groups of LDP members with differing opinions on key issues are supporting him and he himself has yet to clarify his positions on various important issues such as constitutional revision and reform policies.

At any rate, political reorganization involving not only the LDP and the Komeito, but also the Democratic Party and other opposition parties is likely to happen just before the next Lower House election, which will probably take place early next year or next summer at the latest, according to Mr. Toshikawa. Then the battle is likely to be between Ozawa vs. Fukuda, a possible repetition of the "Kaku-Fuku" war between Takana (Ozawa's mentor) and Fukuda (Fukuda's father) back in 1972.