Hong Kong: The Irresistible Trend

Chris Yeung (Editor-at-Large, South China Morning Post)

Just hours after the July 1 march, the central government's liaison office in Hong Kong, in a brief statement, criticised the "inappropriate" slogans adopted by some demonstrators. But otherwise, Beijing's first official response to Thursday's rally was mild.

In a similar vein, mainland legal experts and figures from the local pro-Beijing camp avoided harsh words about the demonstration. In sharp contrast to reaction following last year's rally, a calm and relaxed atmosphere has prevailed.

Beneath the surface, however, there may be anxiety among leaders in Beijing about the sea change in Hong Kong's political scene.

This is not because the rally, which organisers claimed 530,000 people attended, turned out to be an anti-government protest, as some wrongly claimed. Anyone who took the time to observe the march must have been struck by the participants' peaceful, measured and mature expression of their aspirations for democracy.

It may take time for the central government to complete a full analysis of why hundreds of thousands defied the heat to join the march. But the indications are clear that the political impact could be even more significant and far-reaching than last year's 500,000-strong rally.

The fact that the sharp economic turnaround, partly due to Beijing's economic aid, failed to dampen the yearning for democracy shows that Hong Kong society has changed.

Beijing may not be ready to accept that. But to many, Hong Kong is more than an economic city. They have taken note of Beijing's talk of patriotism and fears about pro-independence acts and words. And with a degree of restraint and with maturity, they have shown through the peaceful march that such worries are unfounded.

The central government may continue to cite the use of the slogan "return power to the people" and the involvement of foreign political forces to argue against accelerating the pace of democratisation. But it can no longer deny that the legitimate demand for full universal suffrage within the parameters of the Basic Law has received broad and persistent support in society.

The fact that the campaign for democracy is no longer the pet subject of a few hundred die-hard democrats calls for a fundamental change of mindset in Beijing's approach to Hong Kong.

Undoubtedly, reconciliation between Beijing and the pro-democracy camp can ease political tension in the run-up to September's Legislative Council election. Yet even the signs of a thaw in the past few weeks failed to significantly reduce the number of marchers. This says a lot about people's determination in their demand for full democracy.

With the Legco poll looming, Beijing and Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa will forge closer dialogue with the democrats to help create a harmonious atmosphere to help minimise the number of protest votes against pro-Beijing candidates.

In the medium and long term, Beijing will have to formulate an overall strategy to cope with the strong demand for a clear timetable on full universal suffrage.

Chief Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen has called on a group of business leaders to play a more active role in politics. On Saturday, a group of prominent lawyers who have Beijing's ear formed a new group to put their case on issues relating to "one country, two systems".

Full democracy remains remote. But in the wake of the two July 1 rallies, Beijing and the Tung administration must have woken up to the importance of being ready for the irresistible trend of "one person, one vote".

(Originally appeared in the July 5, 2004 issue of South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, reproduced here with permission.)