IUJ Paper Abstract: Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports from East Asian Countries to Japan and the U.S.

SaangJoon Baak (Assistant Professor, Graduate School of International Relations, International University of Japan), Arif Al-Mahmood (Royal Holloway University of LondonEgham, Surrey, UK) and Souksavanh Vixathep (Asian Development Bank, Lao Resident Mission, Laos)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in four East Asian countries (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand). Specifically, this paper aims to determine whether the bilateral real exchange rate volatility between an East Asian country and its trading partner negatively affects the exports of the East Asian country. Considering the dominant roles of the U.S. and Japan as trading partners of those East Asian countries, this paper focuses on the monthly export volumes of East Asian countries to the U.S. and Japan for the period from 1990 to 2001. Except for the case of Hong Kong's exports to Japan, cointegration tests and estimations of error correction models indicate exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on exports either in the short run or in the long-run, or both. On the other hand, manufacturing production indices of importing countries and depreciation of real bilateral exchange rates turn out, in general, to have positive effects on the exports of the East Asian countries examined.

Abstract from:
http://www.iuj.ac.jp/web/iuj_section.cfm?item=180305
Full paper (PDF) is available at:
http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/wpdv03-2.pdf