Family Trends in 2002: Part Three -
Population Data Shows Declining Birthrates, Fewer Marriages and More Divorces

J. Sean Curtin (Fellow, GLOCOM)

A full list of articles in this series can be found here.

The official population statistics for 2002 were released in June 2003 by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and this article is intended as a revised and updated version of an earlier article based on the provisional data which was published at the beginning of the 2003 (Social Trends #26).

Birthrate Trends in 2002

The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare figures for 2002 show that during the year 1,153,866 babies were born. This is the lowest number since records began back in 1899. The latest figure represents a decrease of 16,796 babies from the 2001 level of 1,170,662 newborns. The 2001 figure was the previous record low, representing a decrease of about 20,000 live births from 2000. Since 1950, the average number of babies born per woman (the birthrate) has been on a general downward spiral. Most years in the past decade have recorded a decline in the birthrate rate. In 2002, the national fertility rate stood at an all-time low of 1.32 children per woman while the corresponding figure for 2001 was 1.33.

The government has designated 2003 as the first year of its new action plan to tackle the low birthrate, but given the persistent long-term nature of the decline, just stabilizing the current birthrate will be an extremely difficult challenge. Unless there is a large influx of immigrants into the country, the birthrate will remain low with the number of newborns set to decline still further over the coming years.

Marriage Trends in 2002

The marriage statistics show that during 2002 a total of 757,331 couples tied the matrimonial knot. This figure was down by 42,672 couples from the 2001 level. The drop corresponds to a 5.63% fall, but at this juncture it is not clear whether this represents the beginning of a real decline. There was a slight upward swing in 2000, which represented the preference for weddings at the beginning of the new millennium. Over the past decade, the marriage rate has hovered in a narrow band ranging from between 6.1 to 6.4 per 1000 of population.

Opinion surveys show that marriage still remains very popular, although the age at which people walk down the aisle is steadily rising. Data for 2002 indicate that couples are continuing to marry later and consequently having fewer children. This trend is just one of the complex web of factors behind the low birthrate. In 2002, the average age of first time motherhood rose to 28.3 years from 28.2 in 2001. This means that the average woman has her first child approximately one year after marriage. In 2002, the average age of marriage was 27.4 years for a woman, slightly higher than the 27.2 years recorded in 2001.

Divorce Trends in 2002

While the number of people marrying declined, those couples filing for a divorce continued to soar. The data for 2002 shows that divorces hit a record high of 289,838 cases. This represents an increase of 3,921 from 2001, corresponding to a 1.4% rise from the previous year. The number of divorces has been steadily increasing for over a decade and shows no signs of receding.

The Influence of Family Trends on the Economy

The trends recorded in 2002 seem almost certain to continue in 2003. This means that the Japanese family will continue to become more diverse, following a pattern which began to emerge in the eighties. The ongoing changes will also have a strong influence on the economy. The late marriage trend will continue to push down the average number of children per family, accentuating the already serious imbalances in the current pension system. The government has recently produced a report suggesting that current pension levels may need to be cut and the retirement age raised.

The ever rising divorce rate will further swell the already overflowing ranks of single-parent households, increasing the number of Japanese families living in poverty. This situation may finally pressurize the government into tackling the current inadequacies in the divorce system and perhaps even improving the woefully inadequate child maintenance system as well as the meagre single-parent welfare provisions.

In a decade from now, Japanese family patterns will be very different from those that dominated in the eighties and nineties. Creating effective policy to deal with these shifts will determine the degree to which economic growth will be adversely affected.

References

Family Trends in 2003 – Part One: Declining Birthrates, Fewer Marriages, More Divorces
Social Trends: Series #26, GLOCOM Platform, 6 February 2003

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